Analysts agree with RBI inflation forecast

Outlook clouded given global volatility, crop concerns

- PRIYANSH VERMA

• 'FURTHER FALL IN CORE INFLATION CRITICAL FOR PRICE STABILITY'

THE RESERVE BANK of India (RBI) kept its retail inflation projection for the current fiscal year unchanged at 5.4%, even after taking cognizance of various risk factors that cloud the inflation outlook, including the global financial market volatility.

However, most analysts are disposed to agree with the central bank's assessment of the price pressures, with assumptions that are broadly similar.

The agreement among analysts is despite the sharp upward revision of the RBI's estimate of headline inflation for the just-concluded quarter (Q2FY24) since the June review of the monetary policy. The consumer price index-based inflation for Q2 is now pegged by the RBI at 6.4%, up from 6.2% forecast in August and 5.2% seen in June. The revisions for Q2 inflation estimates were warranted mainly because tomato prices skyrocketed and cereal inflation proved stickier than anticipated.

Economists believe the spike in inflation witnessed during July-August has cooled off already, and the headline print will remain below 6% for the rest of the year.

"Our projections are close to RBI's, because we have based in similar assumptions for our estimates," said DK Joshi, chief economist at Crisil who sees CPI inflation at 5.5% in FY24. "We assume oil price will average $80-85 per barrel in the current fiscal year. Vegetable inflation has already corrected and the risks from high cereals inflation will also moderate in the coming months," Joshi said.