From late September, the exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israel had rapidly escalated. Over the next two months, Israel relied heavily on airstrikes that targeted several high-level leaders, including Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, the group's arsenal, launching sites, and strategic crossings along the Lebanese-Syrian border to degrade Hezbollah.
Iran's missile barrage into Israel on October 1, stated to be a reprisal against the killing of Nasrallah and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, failed to reverse Israeli escalation in Lebanon and invited a direct response against Iran. Iran's two largely demonstrative strikes against Israel and lack of active support for Hezbollah indicate a restraint that has surprised many.
However, Iran's conduct during the conflict, including support for a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon, is shaped by its defense strategy and constraints of regional geopolitics.
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