Monsoon may end with below normal rain: IMD

This August was the driest and warmest for the entire country since weather records began being kept in 1901, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday, adding that September rains are likely to be “normal”, which means that the four-month monsoon season is likely to end with “below normal” rainfall. September will be hotter than usual too, IMD added

- Jayashree Nandi

That’s not great news for a country that has seen retail inflation soar to a 15-month high of 7.44% in July, not just on account of seasonal spikes in prices of important vegetables such as tomatoes and onions, but also more obstinate inflation in cereals.

Monsoon rainfall for August was the lowest in the past 122 years since 1901 at the national level and also in Central India and the southern Peninsula.

All India rainfall was around 191.2mm in August compared to 192.3mm in 1965, previously the lowest. For Central India rainfall in August was around 164.5mm compared to the previous record for lowest rainfall of 172.8mm in 1905. The Peninsula recorded just 73.5mm of rain in August compared to previous record low of 89.4mm recorded in 1968.

Overall, August saw 36% rainfall deficiency and the monsoon rainfall to date (till August 31) is 10% deficient. But August wasn’t just dry, it was also hot.

The all-India average maximum temperature recorded in August was 32.09 degrees Celsius (°C) compared to normal of 31.09°C; and the all India average mean temperature was 28.40°C compared to normal of 27.55°C. Both were highest for the month since 1901. The Peninsula also saw its highest average maximum, mean and minimum temperatures since 1901.

Monsoon to end “below normal”

Poor rainfall in August, when analysed along with rainfall received in June and July, and the forecast for September suggests that monsoon season is likely to record “below normal” rainfall overall. There was 9% deficiency in rainfall in June followed by 13% excess in July and a 36% deficiency in August. Rainfall in September is likely to be “normal” , ranging between 91% to 109% of long period average (LPA), IMD forecast on Thursday. But even if it were to record the higher end of the forecast range, the average for the season is still likely to be below 96% of LPA.