Trump's America First policy, and its portents

Donald Trump's resounding victory should not have come as a shock to anyone. Vice President Kamala Harris was actually among the best performers of all the incumbents who faced elections in rich countries this year, a testament to her disciplined campaign, Trump's historically unpopular candidacy, and America's world-beating economy.

- Ian Bremmer

Still, this wasn't enough amid widespread voter frustration with persistently high prices caused by the global post-pandemic inflation surge and elevated immigration levels. A hyper-polarized information environment that divides America into two partisan echo chambers made it nigh impossible for the Harris campaign to effectively counter these headwinds. No party had ever managed to retain the White House when incumbent approval is as low as it is and so many Americans believe the country is on the wrong track. Seen in this light, Harris's defeat on election night was more likely than not.

The first Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years on the back of gains with nearly every demographic group in almost every geography, Trump will take office not only with a strong mandate but also with unified control of Congress and a conservative Supreme Court majority. This will give the incoming administration free rein to enact Trump's sweeping domestic policy agenda, radically remake the federal government, and rewrite institutional norms with little in the way of independent checks and balances. But if Trump's return will profoundly impact the US, it may matter even more for the rest of the world.