Two years of the Ukraine war: All eyes on US as fate hangs in balance

Over a century ago, the US Congress left Europe to its fate. It was the end of the First World War.

The US, despite its initial reluctance, had joined the war and ensured a decisive victory for its allies against Germany. Woodrow Wilson had played a key role both during the war and in crafting a peace with the Treaty of Versailles. He put his weight behind the League of Nations, the precursor to the United Nations.

But the US Senate refused to ratify the Treaty, and with it, rejected the League and American participation in it. It remains one of history's big counter-factuals. If the Senate had let Wilson have his way, and if the US had joined the League, would there have been a Second World War? One hundred and four years after the Senate's decision, will the US House of Representatives leave a frightened Europe to its fate? If the Senate has a constitutionally mandated role in determining the American position on any international treaty, the House is a key stakeholder in approving budgets, including security assistance.

And that is why it is in the House on Capitol Hill, in the hands of a few dozen lawmakers, that the future of Ukraine rests. This is the site of the battle between Democrats and Republicans on the future world order and America's role in it; it is the site of the civil war within the Republicans where the old school conservatives encounter the Donald Trump loyalists committed to reducing American commitments globally; it is the site of the tussle between the executive and legislature in America's divided government; and it is the site which will determine if Ukraine has the wherewithal to even defend its gains of the past two years or live with a de facto or even de jure division.

And this suspense comes at a time when the Russian invasion Ukraine marks its second anniversary today, February 24.

The war on the ground

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, and its takeover bid of Kyiv, has not gone according to the best-laid plans in Moscow, Kyiv, Brussels, or Washington.