In its February forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) from the US has predicted the possibility of an El Niño year. For India, El Niño creates dryer and hotter summers and a deficient monsoon. The good news is that the February forecast alone is insufficient to conclude that El Niño will occur this year.
"Based on February forecasts made over the last two decades, we note that of the six times that NOAA ascribed a 45% or higher probability of El Niño in February, only three years saw El Niño actually panning out, while conditions were neutral (normal) in others," said analysts at Jefferies India Pvt Ltd in a report dated 26 February. The India Meteorological Department's first monsoon forecast in April is crucial now.
Even so, this risk cannot be ignored, given that El Niño could have an adverse impact on India's agricultural output and inflation. The probability of El Niño ascribed by NOAA in 2023 of 55-60% is the highest in many years, highlighted the Jefferies report.
この記事は Mint Mumbai の February 28, 2023 版に掲載されています。
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