THE EL NIÑO SHADOW OVER INDIAN AGRICULTURE

Will the climatic phenomenon end the run of good monsoons India has enjoyed over the past four years?

In April, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast a normal monsoon for 2023, with rains estimated at 96% of the long-term average. But it added a rider, which many observers were quick to focus on, and quite rightly. The IMD observed that both its models, and those prepared by others, indicated “that El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season."

The government is concerned as well. The finance ministry’s latest monthly review of the economy flagged the El Niño risk, pointing out: “It is important…to be vigilant against potential risks such as El Niño conditions creating drought conditions and lowering agricultural output and elevating prices, geopolitical developments and global financial stability."

If an El Niño does occur later in the year, as even meteorologists elsewhere in the world predict, it could end the run of good monsoons in the last four years, though this is not certain. India has had good monsoons even in El Niño years, and deficient rainfall in years when the El Niño was not prevalent (Chart 1).