Syria's political transition spurs tensions, refugee crises

As Syria faces a post-Assad era, ethnic rivalries, foreign interventions, and refugee crises intertwine, reshaping regional power dynamics.

- KC SINGH

The rapid ouster of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad and their family's rule since 1971 has destabilised West Asian geopolitics. Post-Ottoman rule, the creation of Syria, Jordan, and Iraq by colonial masters left a mix of different ethnic and religious groups in each nation. A Sunni Saddam Hussein controlled a Shia-majority Iraq until the US military's intervention in 2003.

The Assad family governed Syria since 1971, though their Alawite sect comprised barely 10–15% of Syria's population.

Two major events impacted West Asian geopolitics, especially affecting America's closest ally, Israel.

The deposing of Saddam Hussein unintentionally opened Iran's western border, enabling it to extend its influence across the Shia Crescent, running from Iran to the Mediterranean via Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. A Shia regime in Iraq provided overland connectivity to train and equip militias, especially Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The Arab Spring uprisings hit Syria in 2011 after dictators in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya were deposed. After a civil war and a jolt, the Assad regime stabilised with Iranian and Russian assistance.

The consequences spread beyond Syria. Turkey still hosts 3 million refugees, while Germany has 1 million. Refugees converging on Europe catalysed the rise of right-wing and even fascist parties. In Syria, Al Qaeda-inspired Islamic State was born, rapidly capturing northern Iraq thereafter. Countering it created the forces in play in Syria today.