Deal offers glimpse of hope, but any chance of lasting peace may rest with Trump administration

The deal takes place during a transition from a strongly internationalist administration to Trump's America First

- Andrew Roth

The Biden administration has claimed the long-awaited ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel as a diplomatic triumph achieved under tremendous pressure during a lame-duck period with a hostile Donald Trump administration waiting in the wings.

Speaking at the White House, Joe Biden hailed the "historic" result that "reminds us that peace is possible". It would return civilians to their homes, he said, and had "determined this conflict will not be just another cycle of violence".

Yet the peace, which was preceded by heavy Israeli airstrikes in Beirut in the final hours before it came into effect, is shaky at best.

The complex agreement will allow Israel to continue to strike targets in Lebanon that it deems a direct security threat and will largely depend on Benjamin Netanyahu's sense of restraint to endure.

The 60-day ceasefire will also rely on expectations that the Lebanese army can keep the peace in Hezbollah strongholds, that Hezbollah will not manage to rearm, and that Lebanon can transform itself following the destructive war.

And finally, it takes place during a power transition from a strongly internationalist Biden administration to Trump's America First worldview.