Number of diabetes cases across the world 'will double by 2050'

The number of adults living with diabetes worldwide will more than double by 2050, according to research that blames rapidly rising obesity levels and widening health inequalities.

- Andrew Gregory

New estimates predict the number will rise from 529 million in 2021 to more than 1.3 billion in 2050. No country is expected to see a decline in its diabetes rate over the next 30 years. The findings were published in the Lancet and The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology journals.

Experts described the picture given by the data as alarming. They said it was becoming increasingly clear that diabetes was exponentially growing in prevalence and outpacing most diseases globally, warning that it presented a major threat to people and health systems everywhere.

"Diabetes remains one of the biggest public health threats of our time and is set to grow aggressively over the coming three decades in every country, age group, and sex, posing a serious challenge to healthcare systems worldwide," said Dr Shivani Agarwal, of the Montefiore Health System and the Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York.

Forecasters have separately predicted that by 2050 the world's population will be about 9.7 billion. That suggests that by 2050 about 13.4% of the world's population between one in seven and one in eight people will have diabetes.