Support for European populist parties surging, study finds

Almost one-third of Europeans now polivote for populist, far-right or far-left parties, research shows, with wide support for anti-establishment tics surging across the continent in an increasingly problematic challenge to the mainstream.

- Jon Henley

Analysis by more than 100 political scientists across 31 countries found in national elections last year a record 32% of European voters cast their ballots for anti-establishment parties, compared with 20% in the early 2000s and 12% in the early 1990s.

The research, led by Matthijs Rooduijn, a political scientist at the University of Amsterdam, and shared exclusively with the Guardian, also found that about half of anti-establishment voters supported far-right parties and this was the vote share that is increasing most rapidly.

"There's fluctuation, but the underlying trend is the numbers keep rising," Rooduijn said. "Mainstream parties are losing votes; anti-establishment parties are gaining. It matters, because many studies now show that when populists secure power, or influence over power, the quality of liberal democracy declines."

In a sign of how far the rise of the nativist, authoritarian far right has shifted Europe's politics rightwards, the researchers considered classifying several better-known centre-right parties as borderline far-right.

"We talked a lot about reclassifying the UK's Conservatives, Mark Rutte's VVD in the Netherlands, Les Républicains in France and the ÖVP in Austria," Rooduijn said. "In the end we didn't because nativism was not their core focus. But we may in future."