The axis of resistance Iranian allies in five countries could detonate a major conflict

The dramatic first week of 2024 has tipped the scale towards those who say the daily diet of drone strikes, assassinations and maritime assaults will at some point combust into a major war across the Middle East.

- Patrick Wintour 

But the likelihood of a regional conflagration turns on the unclear intentions of Iran and the contested degree of control it exercises over the numerous linked but autonomous groups it has nurtured over the past decade in five sovereign countries. With so many variables, what looks like being a long war in Gaza increases the risk of miscalculation, accident or that one of the many players loses patience and lights the touch paper.

Iran makes up for its lack of regional diplomatic clout through the "axis of resistance" that is the lasting legacy of Qassem Suleimani, the head of Iran's al-Quds force, who was killed on the orders of Donald Trump in 2020. The trail of blood that followed the general across the Middle East during his lifetime has continued after his death - Islamic State for Wednesday's deadly attack on a crowd in southern Iran gathered to mark the fourth anniversary of his assassination.

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, argued in a recent speech that Iran itself insisted that indigenous organisations needed to be able to manufacture their own military capability, and to network organically, and not to depend on a hierarchical Iran-proxy formula.