The budget Hunt will talk long game as he scrabbles cash to fund tax cuts up

When Clement Attlee took soundings from his cabinet on the timing of the 1950 election, the then chancellor, Sir Stafford Cripps, was adamant the Labour government had to go to the country before the budget so that voters did not think the decisions made had been taken with polling day in mind.

- Larry Elliott

Those were the days. As the 2024 budget approaches on Wednesday, the assumption is that Jeremy Hunt will do his utmost to deliver a crowd-pleasing package of tax cuts.

Experience suggests this strategy won't work. For a start, the sums involved will be relatively modest.

The size of Hunt's net giveaway is likely to be a maximum of £10bn, which is small beer in the context of a £2.5tn-a-year economy. The package will be smaller than last November's autumn statement, which made no difference to the Conservative party's dire opinion poll ratings.

Giveaway budgets only work politically if they feel consistent with the economy's direction of travel. In 1987, Nigel Lawson was able to cut taxes because growth was strong, inflation was low, people were seeing their living standards rise, and the public finances were in good shape.