Has Cleverly hit the front in Tory leadership election?

Things are livening up in the battle for the Tory leadership. For some weeks, the working assumption has been that Kemi Badenoch is in the lead; now it appears James Cleverly has overtaken her among the Conservative Party membership, with Priti Patel emerging as runner-up, Badenoch third and Tom Tugendhat fourth.

- SEAN O'GRADY

This is according to a Techne survey commissioned by the Cleverly team; it is somewhat out of line with the Conservative Home panel, which still has Badenoch ahead and Patel much further behind most of the others. But it could mean the race is rather more open and unpredictable than first thought.

What’s going on?

It seems unlikely that different timings for the fieldwork and candidates’ responses (or lack of them) to the riots could explain a sudden Cleverly surge, though as shadow home secretary he had a slightly higher profile during the disturbances. The differences in standing are stark (Techne figures first, Conservative Home second):

James Cleverly 26 10

Priti Patel 20 8

Kemi Badenoch 14 33

Tom Tugendhat 11 10

Robert Jenrick 10 19

Mel Stride 4 2