Labour leader set for decade in No 10 as Farage touted as Sunak successor, finds poll

Sir Keir Starmer is set to be prime minister for a decade, Tory supporters want Nigel Farage to succeed Rishi Sunak as leader, and many in the Conservative Party fear that it faces extinction.

- SIMON WALTERS

These are among the shock findings of an exclusive poll conducted for The Independent by Redfield and Wilton.

It shows that 45 per cent of all voters believe Labour will win not just this election but the next one, too. With a parliamentary term lasting up to five years, that could see Sir Keir retaining the Downing Street keys until around 2034. Only 19 per cent of the public do not expect Labour to record two successive victories.

The poll makes depressing reading for Mr Sunak – but indicates that the rise of Mr Farage, now bidding to win his first Commons seat, also has serious implications for Labour. He is the clear choice of the public – and, crucially, of Conservative supporters – to be the next Tory leader, if, as expected, the party loses on 4 July and Mr Sunak resigns.

Asked to choose a successor from a list comprising the six current Tory leadership favourites and the Reform Party leader, Mr Farage wins across both groups of voters. Only Commons leader Penny Mordaunt runs him close. Among the electorate as a whole, 19 per cent want Mr Farage to be the next Conservative leader; he is followed by Ms Mordaunt on 15 per cent. James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, Priti Patel and Robert Jenrick all failed to poll higher than 6 per cent.

Mr Farage is even further ahead with those who voted Conservative in 2019. A total of 22 per cent of this group want him to be the next leader of the party, with Ms Mordaunt on 16 per cent and the rest way behind.

A significant chunk of the Conservative faithful appear to think their party is doomed. One in three (32 per cent) of those who voted for it in the last election think it will cease to exist in its present form within 10 years. Nearly half (46 per cent) of this group are more optimistic and think it will recover.