Labour needs a City thumbs up to reassure the electorate

Rishi Sunak had become increasingly frustrated as the economic outlook improved but he and his ministers received little credit. It was this that made up his mind to go to the country. There seemed little point in waiting for things to get better (to quote the well-worn Labour song). They might, they might not.

- CHRIS BLACKHURST

He must hope that while voters did not show their appreciation in the recent local elections, they will do so in the Big One. While the Tories were punished in the council ballots, he could derive encouragement that Labour's vote was soft: Tory defectors did not switch en masse to Keir Starmer's party.

Sunak is aware, too, that a Tory voter backing Reform at district level is not the same as picking the person to govern Britain, to manage the Exchequer and run the army. That's much more serious, and other parties fall by the wayside, marginalised by a traditional Tory versus Labour fight.

As the battle unfolds, Sunak hopes voters will once again put their faith in the Tories to manage their money.

He can claim to have brought inflation down. Where the economy is concerned he has a proven track record, albeit a very short one. Best to stick with him and play safe, or go with Labour and Starmer - still untested, for all his longevity as leader and his shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves?