Three main Irish parties set for election photo finish

Sinn Fein, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail are virtually neck-and-neck in terms of first preference votes in the Irish general election, according to an exit poll last night.

- CILLIAN SHERLOCK

The Ipsos B&A Exit Poll was commissioned by RTE, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin and results came after polls closed at 10pm. It puts the two largest parties in the current coalition, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, on a combined 40.5 per cent.

While the exit poll is indicative of the support base for the political parties, the final results will be determined by transfer votes – a key part of Ireland’s complex electoral system of proportional representation with a single transferable vote (PRSTV).

The exit poll’s examination of voter’s second preferences put Fianna Fail and Fine Gael at 20 per cent each, with Sinn Fein at 17 per cent.

The inconclusive results mean that all eyes will now turn to the potential search for coalition partners.

Elsewhere, the exit poll showed: Social Democrats (5.8 per cent), Labour (5 per cent), Greens (4 per cent), Aontu (3.6 per cent), People Before Profit-Solidarity (3.1 per cent), and Independent Ireland (2.2 per cent). Independents and other candidates were on 14.6 per cent. There is a margin of error of 1.4 per cent.

Matt Carthy, Sinn Fein’s director of elections, hailed his party’s performance as a significant turnaround from the party’s disappointing showing in June’s local and European elections.

“When you consider where we would have been coming out of the local and European elections, I have to say it’s a phenomenal result,” Mr Carthy told RTE.

He added: “We do recall that in 2020 the exit poll actually undershot Sinn Fein to the tune of 2 per cent-plus. So if that was to transpire tomorrow morning [Saturday], there is every chance that Sinn Fein will emerge from these elections as the largest political party.”

Mr Carthy would not be drawn on what the exit poll might mean for coalition formation.

Fianna Fail deputy leader Jack Chambers said there is a “threeway race” to see who will become the largest party.