It has been more than a century since an established political party was successfully overtaken by an insurgent newcomer, when the Liberals gave way to Labour.
The rise of Reform UK to its status as a political force that is able to pose a threat to the Conservatives â even with only five MPs, despite its 15 per cent of the vote share â is underscored by the row between Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch over who has the most members.
Nevertheless, if Reform is to finish the job, it will need more than a website counter boasting of its supporters; it will need defections on all sorts of levels, from ordinary voters (22 per cent of Tories from Julyâs election say they will now vote Reform) to councillors, donors, and MPs.
Reform has already wooed Tories including businessman Zia Yussuf, who is now party chair; billionaire Nick Candy, who is its new treasurer; ex-MPs Andrea Jenkyns and Aidan Burley; and Conservative Home founder Tim Montgomerie. But it needs more high-profile names.
Senior figures claim that many more former and even current Tory MPs are preparing to join, but the really big fish have yet to bite. Part of the problem could be that senior figures in Reform have very different ideas about who are the best people to attract. But if 2025 is to be the year that propels the party towards bigger wins, then some of the names on its various wishlists (depending on who you talk to) need to come over. Here are a handful of the figures being targeted.
Lost leader
The idea that Boris Johnson could defect to Reform UK seems utterly fanciful, and he has previously said he would not abandon the Conservatives. But The Independent has been told by figures in Farageâs party that some of them would like to see it happen, and do not think it entirely impossible.
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