Too close to call: predicting the result is a fool's game

Polls can simulate the result all night long but in a contest this tight, it’s educated guesswork, writes Chris Blackhurst

- Chris Blackhurst

When Donald Trump left office, the polling organisation, Gallup, reported that he had a 38 per cent job approval rating – an abysmally low number. A few weeks ago, NBC asked the same question and the answer had leapt to a far more creditable 48 per cent. That’s how fickle public opinion can be, how it can change.

People thought a Joe Biden presidency would provide all the qualities that Trump’s didn’t, like consistency and solidity. When that failed to materialise because of his frailty, they were seemingly reminded of the energy of Trump. All his negative aspects – dark conspiracy theories, his lashing out, a revolving door at the White House, repeated blatant deception, breaking the law – were forgotten. Suddenly, Trump was being remembered fondly by more Americans.

If it was left to reason, Trump would be nowhere in this election. He carries too much negative baggage. But just as Trump defies gravity when it comes to his favourability rating and is able to rewrite history, so logic does not determine the outcome of the presidential election. Instead, it’s dependent on all manner of factors.

Charged with trying to make sense of it all are the polling firms. This year’s contest, they’re saying, is too close to call. It’s been that sort of fight all along, where forecasting is concerned, of nip and tuck – one side slightly up one minute then down the next. The latest simulation from FiveThirtyEight National Polls tracker (the poll of polls) gives a Trump victory 53 times out of 100 and Harris, 46 out of 100. It’s that tight.