As well as pointing to estimates from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, which suggests that tariffs of just 10 per cent could cut UK economic growth by 0.7 percentage points – cutting it in half in 2025 – it also fears higher inflation and interest rates. That the US would suffer as well as the UK would come as scant consolation.
It is true that those numbers are nowhere near as nasty as Brexit, which lopped 4 per cent off the top of UK plc, but they still represent the loss of billions of pounds. They also will hit tax revenues and the money available to fund public services. Jobs would inevitably be axed and businesses would flop. A savage blow.
But wait, says the CEBR, there is a solution: strike a trade deal with the US. Do that and the problem goes away (mostly). The entire global economy would take a severe hit from a global trade war and the UK would not be immune from the aftershocks, even with such a deal. Nonetheless, it points out that Trump pursued a deal much more “proactively” during his first term as president than Biden.
この記事は The Independent の November 19, 2024 版に掲載されています。
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この記事は The Independent の November 19, 2024 版に掲載されています。
7 日間の Magzter GOLD 無料トライアルを開始して、何千もの厳選されたプレミアム ストーリー、9,000 以上の雑誌や新聞にアクセスしてください。
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