The latest, from YouGov, carried out in the days just before the Tory conference opened in Birmingham, has her winning by the "cursed ratio" - the 52-48 per cent split that decided the EU referendum. This is a narrower lead than the 59-41 per cent advantage she enjoyed in the previous YouGov poll in August (I am adjusting the figures to exclude don't knows). She was also ahead, by 60-40 per cent, in the Conservative Home survey at the start of September. And in a Techne poll of party members in July (59-41 per cent again).
The only poll of party members that put Jenrick ahead, by 51-49 per cent, was one by JL Partners in August. Yet punters in the betting markets have had Jenrick as the favourite for several weeks.
What is going on?
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