WHY INCUMBENCY TANKS GOVTS DESPITE WELL-MEANING SCHEMES

THE results of the recent elections to the Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana assemblies are quite baffling as they defy the traditional psephological calculus.

- K JAYAKUMAR

If antiincumbency is the factor that went against Ashok Gehlot, Bhupesh Baghel and Chandrasekhar Rao, the same factor faltered in the case of Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh.

Let us examine how anti-incumbency sentiment works. Governments try to reach out to people by formulating programmes aimed at the weaker sections and arguably addressing the felt needs of society. In Indian electoral politics, it is common practice that ad hoc welfarism takes precedence over hardcore sustainable development goals. Appeasement of social groups based on caste and regional considerations is an electoral tactic employed by all political dispensations. Every government is acutely aware of the possible disenchantment that could set in by thwarted expectations and lackadaisical implementation of programmes. Anti-incumbency sentiment is the culmination of dissatisfaction growing into disaffection that soon morphs into dejection and loss of hope. The voting out of the ruling parties in these three states by convincing margins is the sure seal of dejection and loss of hope, euphemistically called the anti-incumbency factor.