THE MISDIRECTED DEBATE ON POPULATION CHANGES

SOME recent reports have alarmingly misinterpreted findings from the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (PM-EAC) working paper titled 'Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (19502015)'.

These sensationalised narratives suggest a demographic takeover by the Muslim population in India, a notion that fuels Islamophobic fears and diverts attention from meaningful policy discussions.

Such interpretations also ignore broader demographic trends and socio-economic factors influencing population growth.

The PM-EAC working paper does not conclude that Muslims will outnumber Hindus in India. Instead, it points out the reasons for a change in religious demography are "multivariate" and "complex", and "beyond the scope" of the paper's analysis.

However, the paper's assertion that population growth reflects minority well-being does not consider complex interplay of factors contributing to demographic change, adding to preexisting misconceptions.

The PM-EAC study highlighted change in the individual shares of religious groups, which caused significant misunderstanding. It says, between 1950 and 2015, the share of the Hindu population declined 7.8 percent, while that of Muslims increased 43.2 percent. This presentation is often misunderstood. The percentage changes concern their own shares and not a share of the total population. The rate of change in shares does not reflect actual population growth numbers. By the same metric, the Buddhist population's share increased 1519.6 percent and the Sikhs 49.2 percent, but this does not imply a dramatic increase in their absolute numbers. Similarly, the decline in the Parsi population by 86.7 percent does not suggest targeted persecution. Such figures can be misleading without proper context.