Lichtman established his Lichtman Theory based on some 120 presidential polls in the USA in 1981. Since then, he has accurately predicted the winners of nine out of 10 last US presidential polls - missing out only in the 2000 polls when George W. Bush edged out Al Gore - in a contested bout that was resolved by the Supreme Court.
That means Lichtman had accurately predicted the wins of Ronald Reagan (1981-1989), George H.W. Bush (1989-1993), Bill Clinton (1993-2001), George W.H. Bush (2005-2009), Barack Obama (2009-2017), Donald Trump (2017-2021) and Joe Biden (2021-2025). Total of nine elections and reelections.
His Theory is based on 13 key points which are benchmarked against the incumbent party. These include the economy, foreign policy, domestic social unrest, inflation and the presence of strong third-party candidates.
If the incumbent (Harris-Democrat) fails in six or more of the 13 keys they will lose; if five keys or less, they will win. Lichtman predicts Democrats will fail in only five keys now, including foreign policy, which makes him predict that Harris will beat Trump this year in the Nov. 5 polls.
Popular vote vs electoral college
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