Usually, the first 'smart' answer is wrong

What would you expect to see when you hear hoofbeats on a farm? A crazy horse or an inconsiderate neighbor doing karaoke? Chances are, you’ll choose a horse.

- REY ELBO

The location gives the clue. You’re on a farm with few people, much less a neighbor. On a farm, if there are houses, they’re built hundreds of meters away from one another.

It’s the same basic rule that doctors follow. “When you hear hoofbeats, think about horses, not zebras.” That’s because horses are more common than zebras.

That principle was developed by Theodore Woodward (1914-2005), a respected academic physician at the University of Maryland.

In treating out-patients with no laboratory exam result yet, doctors would diagnose a case as the horse representing the most likely illness, rather than a zebra representing a rare disease.

Another example, bordering on fiction, is the case of Akiko Bagonggahasa, a 20-year-old woman from Paete, Laguna who loves Japanese food. Purportedly, her surname under the old Tagalog dictionary means “newly sharpened” when applied to paet (chisel) reflecting Paete’s reputation as the carving capital of the Philippines.

Today, in a judgmental world, Bagonggahasa offers an unpalatable meaning as “newly raped.” With zero knowledge about Akiko, which of the following two choices would best describe her nationality? (A) Japanese (B) Filipino.

Most people would bet on A because Akiko is a Japanese name. This is complemented by her love for Japanese food. While Akiko is a familiar name for a Japanese woman, Bagonggahasa is an unusual surname in the Philippines which gives you a reasonable hint that she could be a Filipino.