Why China will become more aggressive

THE CORNER ORACLE

- ANDREW J. MASIGAN

China's rise as an economic and military power was nothing short of phenomenal. Many believed that the Chinese century was upon us and that it was only a matter of time before China surpassed the US as the world's predominant superpower. But as they say, fates of nations move in cycles - what is on an upswing today will inevitably be on a downward path tomorrow. Unlike most empires whose rise and fall took place over centuries, China's cycle is happening in just a matter of decades. The communist nation has already seen its peak and sadly, has started to decline even before it has become a bona fide world empire.

Conditions that caused

China's rise Five conditions contributed to China's meteoric rise. The first is the assurance of security. China's geopolitical position faced no threats since the end of the Vietnam war despite being surrounded by 19 countries, many of whom are powerful, unstable or both. The assurance of security allowed the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to focus on its economy.

Second, China was ushered into the global economy, thanks to the US. Leveraging on its huge population and low labor cost, China rode the wave of ever-increasing global trade brought about by US-led trade liberalization.

Third, the government of Deng Xiaoping opened the economy and adopted capitalist policies. State control was eased, allowing the flow of foreign investments. Industries were created and infrastructure was built. Presidents Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao provided continuity to Deng's policies amid a politically stable environment.

Fourth, when China opened itself to trade in 1978, the country enjoyed a demographic advantage where baby boomers filled the workforce. Back then, there were 15 workers for every retiree.