Hobson's choice

The Indo-Chinese relationship can be one of mutual benefit. For India, Chinese imports are vital for developing infrastructure and manufacturing capabilities. Not surprisingly, trade with China increased by 46 per cent in 2021, just after the border clashes, and is on an increasing trajectory. China, too, has its own compulsions, as it faces an eco-nomic slowdown, a shrinking population and an increasingly hostile West. For China, India is a huge market, as also a profitable target of investment in technology, property and infrastructure

- DEVENDRA SAKSENA

We are living in extraordinary times, when geopolitics changes colours faster than a chameleon. With Russia on a downward trajectory, unable to get the better of its former satellite, Ukraine, and depending more and more on Chinese support for its very survival, the world order has changed irrevocably.

The unipolar world, with US as its only pole, is seeing China emerge as the second pole ~ a formidable rival to the US. From scratch, China has risen phenomenally in the last fifty years, and from the time of the Trump presidency, the US has devoted much energy to stymie the Chinese upsurge. The current decade has seen trading disputes between US and China, deteriorating into an undeclared cold war, with the US denying advanced technology, particularly chip technology, to China, and China retaliating by sanctioning high-ranking US officials, and threatening Taiwan with annihilation. Specifically targeting China, the US has created new military alliances like Aukus and Quad.

On the other hand, after touching a nadir in 1971, India-US relations have improved steadily, with the US becoming India’s largest trading partner in the last two years. There have been hiccups too; the Devyani Khobragade incident, Trump’s levy on Indian imports, etc. Some major concerns have also emerged; the US has proved an unreliable ally, failing to provide material support to us when we were attacked by Pakistan in 1965 and 1999 and by China in 1962 and 2020.

During the Indo-Pak war of 1971, the US actively supported Pakistan. After the Malabar naval exercises, we had hoped that the US would support Quad (an alliance of US, Japan, India and Australia) militarily and the Quad would evolve as a counterweight to China. However, the formation of Aukus ~ a military alliance between the UK, US and Australia, which is Quad minus Japan and India ~ has preempted this possibility.