Uncertainties of a Trumpian world

Donald Trump's return to the White House in January 2025, combined with a Republican-led US Senate, was widely feared among international allies and will be cheered by some of America's foes.

While the former put on a brave face, the latter are finding it hard to hide their glee.

On the war in Ukraine, Trump is likely to try to force Kyiv and Moscow into at least a ceasefire along the current front lines. This could possibly involve a permanent settlement that would acknowledge Russia's territorial gains, including the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the territories occupied since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

It is also likely that Trump would accept demands by Russian president Vladimir Putin to prevent a future Ukrainian Nato membership. Given Trump's well-known animosity to Nato, this would also be an important pressure on Kyiv's European allies. Trump could, once again, threaten to abandon the alliance in order to get Europeans to sign up to a deal with Putin over Ukraine.

When it comes to the Middle East, Trump has been a staunch supporter of Israel and Saudi Arabia in the past. He is likely to double down on this, including by taking an even tougher line on Iran. This aligns well with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's current priorities.

Netanyahu seems determined to destroy Iran's proxies Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen and severely degrade Iranian capabilities. By dismissing his defence minister, Yoav Gallant, a critic of his conduct of the offensive in Gaza, Netanyahu has laid the ground for a continuation of the conflict there.

It also prepares for a widening of the offensive in Lebanon and a potentially devastating strike against Iran in response to any further Iranian attack on Israel.