China growth forecast up on better outlook for exports

The outlook for China’s exports is set to improve, buttressing growth in the world’s second-biggest economy even as consumer spending slows, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Exports are expected to climb 4.3 per cent in 2024 from a year ago, according to the median forecast of 22 economists surveyed from June 17 to 24. That is a jump from the 2.8 per cent gain forecast in a May survey. China’s economy may expand 5 per cent, up from the 4.9 per cent projected in May, according to the median of 68 estimates.

“We look for an improving trade outlook over the coming months, driven by a shift in global demand from services back to goods,” said Ms Serena Zhou, senior China economist at Mizuho Securities Asia.

China’s exports beat expectations in April and May, reflecting strong demand from overseas and the increasing competitiveness of Chinese producers. While this supports Beijing’s strategy of relying on exports to spur growth and offset weak spending by Chinese households, risks are mounting as its companies start to face more trade barriers from the United States and Europe.