For Myanmar, South-east Asia's outcast, Asean is its only antidote

China may be able to influence developments in its neighbour, but only Asean can build trust and confidence if the junta collapses or wants to sue for peace.

- Tan See Seng

Myanmar ushered in the new year with several developments in its ongoing civil war.

A coalition of militias based in northern Shan state made significant gains in the north-eastern part of the country.

Following their military successes, China mediated a ceasefire between the ruling junta, or State Administrative Council (SAC), and the rebel alliance.

The Three Brotherhood Alliance is reported to have ties with China, which has thus far avoided antagonising the SAC.

Meanwhile, Laos, the current Asean chair, appointed veteran diplomat Alounkeo Kittikhoun as the regional bloc's special envoy to Myanmar ahead of the Asean foreign ministerial retreat in Luang Prabang in late January.

A VACUUM ONLY CHINA CAN FILL

Whether these developments will lead to peace in Myanmar is anybody's guess. In the first instance, China's proactive mediation was prompted by the threat of the military conflict spilling over into its territory. A stray artillery shell on Jan 4 landed on the Chinese side of the border, reportedly causing injuries.

There is also concern over the disruption of border trade and a potential refugee crisis. While the Beijing-brokered ceasefire arguably highlights China's relative influence over Myanmar, it also implies Beijing's lack of desire to get involved unless its own citizens and interests are put at risk.