It's all about China: The key to future US ties with S-E Asia

Whether the next US president is Harris or Trump, that is the prism through which Washington will calibrate its ties. Three countries, including Singapore, stand out.

- Tan See Seng

On Nov 5, Americans will pick their 47th president. For countries in South-east Asia, while it is unclear at this point who will emerge the winner, there's one thing they can be certain of: whoever becomes president, China will be the prism through which Washington will view and engage with Asean and its constituent members.

Mr Xi Jinping's China is a risen and assertive great power, one done with playing second fiddle to the United States. Mr Xi's willingness to push back on several fronts is visibly evident, say, in his strategy to deny America access to the South China Sea, which Beijing proprietarily views as a Chinese lake.

The contention that the US should pursue ties with South-east Asia as a standalone good by itself no longer merits as much attention in US policy circles as it once did. Americans on both sides of the political aisle today are convinced the US must necessarily counter Chinese power and influence. But what Americans have yet to achieve agreement on is how to go about it.

If Donald Trump regains the White House, he will likely reprise his protectionist-minded "America First" focus and resume his tariff war on China. For the record, Trump has expressed his belief that America does not need China for the former to remain the world's top economy. But any viable strategy on China will require the broad support of US allies and partners and even international organisations. How the next Trump administration can successfully pull that off given his visceral dislike for, and continual disparagement of allies and institutions will be key.