Scrapping of 2018 inter-Korean military peace deal doesn't mean war

Experts say armed conflict unlikely as both sides know it is unnecessary and damaging

- Wendy Teo

The race between the two Koreas to launch their first spy satellites into orbit has spiralled into heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula.

On the night of Nov 21, Pyongyang launched a home-grown spy satellite, ignoring warnings by Seoul that the move was in violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions. South Korea is slated to launch its own satellite on Nov 30.

In response, Seoul announced on Nov 22 that it would partially suspend a 2018 military peace deal signed by the two sides and step up military surveillance along its border with the North.

The next day, North Korea declared that it would deploy new weapons and "stronger armed forces" near the border, abandoning the accord altogether.

While tensions on the Korean peninsula are at their highest in recent years, analysts tell The Straits Times that the situation is unlikely to escalate into armed conflict.

Describing North Korea's threats as a bark worse than a bite, Sogang University political science professor Kim Jae-chun said he did not see the scrapping of the 2018 agreement as an automatic war declaration.

He told ST: "Both Koreas are well aware of each other's military capabilities, and North Korea knows that South Korea has the backing of the United States. The North also knows that both the US and China would want stability in the region and do their best to stop any conflict on the peninsula."

Seoul National University's law professor Lee Jae-min also believes a military conflict is unlikely.