Spore Will Suffer if Trump's Higher Tariffs Shrink Global Trade: Analysts

His proposed moves will slow growth and boost inflation worldwide, they say

- Ovais Subhani

There is no denying that any disruption in global trade flows is detrimental to export-driven economies like Singapore, and that threat looms large if former US president Donald Trump wins his country's presidential election next week.

The self-proclaimed "tariff man" has vowed to end the United States' reliance on China, create millions of jobs and grow the economy by imposing across-the-board levies on imports, deporting millions of immigrants, eroding the central bank's political independence and cutting taxes for billionaires and large corporations.

There is a broad consensus among economists that even if some of these proposals see the light of day - the hike in tariffs in particular - they would put a drag on growth, increase unemployment and boost inflation, not just in the US but also worldwide.

This would be Trump's second attempt to take a sledgehammer to the so-called liberal global order that promotes free flow of trade, investment and labour along with human rights.

He made good on his protectionist promises in his first stint in the White House from 2016 to 2020, when he pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations during his first week in office.

He also launched trade wars, re-negotiated existing free trade agreements, increased deportations and attempted to ban immigrants from predominantly Muslim countries.

So investors, political leaders and policymakers are taking his proclamations on the campaign trail seriously.

Trump has vowed to impose a universal baseline tariff of either 10 per cent, or 10 additional percentage points, on all imports into the US - possibly including shipments from the 20 free trade agreement partners, one of which is Singapore, the only Asean nation the US has a trade deal with.