Turkey's temporary triumph in Syria creates new challenges for Erdogan

Turkish leader has much to gain, but dangers lurk amid neighbour's upheaval

- Jonathan Eyal

BRUSSELS - "It's finally up to the people of Syria to shape their future," Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Dec 8, hours after the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown. It is also believed, however, that no other state is better positioned to benefit from the upheavals than Turkey.

Few people know the Middle East better than Mr Fidan. Before his appointment in 2023 as Turkey's top diplomat, Mr Fidan ran his country's National Intelligence Organisation - Turkey's chief spying outfit - for more than a decade, and remains one of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's closest advisers.

In his first public reaction to the spectacular events in Syria, Mr Fidan was, however, uncharacteristically modest. While there is no doubt that he genuinely wants Syria to get back on its feet without foreign interference, Turkey is now the country with the greatest influence over Syrian affairs.

At the same time, no other nation stands to lose more from any potential Syrian mayhem than Turkey. Mr Erdogan and his chief spook like to play for high stakes.

After the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011, Mr Erdogan pursued two policy goals in Syria. He wanted to create the conditions for the return of Syrian refugees who poured into Turkey. The Turks now host approximately three million Syrian citizens, and the refugee question has been one of the most divisive domestic issues in the country, especially since the Turkish economy has experienced a downturn over the past few years.

Just as importantly, Mr Erdogan aimed to prevent the creation of a Kurdish-dominated autonomous region in northern Syria adjacent to the Turkish borders.

This is seen in Turkey as a dangerous move, apt to encourage separatist tendencies among the country's own Kurds, who number around 15 million, or approximately 18 per cent of the Turkish population.