What will happen to Gaza's people?

Officials are increasingly suggesting that Palestinians should leave the region, but Israel’s government denies that is its policy.

- Peter Beinart

Conventional wisdom has generally held that Israel's government lacks a strategy for the Gaza Strip beyond toppling Hamas.

"Israel has no plan for Gaza after war ends, experts warn," the BBC reported in October. In November, The Washington Post observed that "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has come under criticism for not offering a clear plan for what happens in Gaza if Israel succeeds in its goal of deposing Hamas".

A headline in Foreign Affairs magazine in December lamented "Israel's muddled strategy in Gaza".

But there are signs that some members of the Israeli government do indeed have a strategy, or at least a preference, for what happens next.

It is implicit in the kind of war Israel has waged, which has made Gaza largely unliveable. And a growing number of Israeli officials are saying it out loud: They don't want to force just Hamas out of Gaza. They want many of Gaza's people to leave, too.

The calls for population transfers started long before Gaza was reduced to the ruins that it is today. Six days after Hamas' massacre of Israelis on Oct 7, the Intelligence Ministry proposed permanently relocating Gazans to the Sinai region of Egypt.

On Nov 14, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said he supported "the voluntary emigration of Gaza Arabs to countries around the world".

Five days later, Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel endorsed "the voluntary resettlement of Palestinians in Gaza, for humanitarian reasons, outside of the Strip".

The Israel Hayom newspaper reported on Nov 30 that Mr Netanyahu had asked Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, one of his closest confidants, to develop a plan to "thin" the population in Gaza "to a minimum" by prying open Egypt's doors and opening up sea routes to other countries..

Mr Netanyahu reportedly also urged US President Joe Biden and the leaders of Britain and France to push Egypt to admit hundreds of thousands of Gazan refugees.