Game on for BJP, Madhya Pradesh is no cakewalk for Congress

There does not appear to be a wave in favour of any party, including the Congress, in Madhya Pradesh even as political winds continue to gain momentum and change directions frequently ahead of the 17 November Assembly elections.

- RAHUL CHHABRA

What appeared to be a cakewalk for Congress until two months ago has been turned into a respectable fight by the BJP with the contest to elect a new 230-member Assembly likely to go down to the wire. Both the ruling BJP and the Congress claim to be getting a comfortable majority, but the outcome could rest on about 40 seats which could be anybody's in a state which is not known for the razzmatazz associated with campaigns and heightened visible activity in the buildup to an election.

While BJP leaders claim the party would win 135 seats, the Congress state leadership is claiming they will win a comfortable two-third majority when the results are declared on 3 December. But both the parties are wary of the damage a third party or independents may inflict on key seats.

Political analysts say the 40 swing seats, where the margin of victory in 2018 was less than 5,000, could land in anybody's pocket and change the entire scenario. For example, they cite interesting election statistics that reflect the unpredictability in the state. In the 2018 Assembly contest, the BJP won 1.56 crore votes in the entire state and the Congress got 1.55 crore votes, yet the Congress got six more seats than the BJP.

The Congress vote share was 40.9%, while that of the BJP was 41%. The 47 tribal seats out of which 31 were won by the Congress in 2018 pose the biggest challenge for the BJP in the 17 November election.

PERCEPTION WARS