The odds of Israel-Lebanon war grow
Toronto Star|June 15, 2024
First came Gaza. Now comes Lebanon.
MARTIN REGG COHN
The odds of Israel-Lebanon war grow

Israeli army soldiers deploy along a road next to the landing site of rockets fired from south Lebanon near Kfar Szold in northern Israel on Friday. These attacks will end in bloodshed, Martin Regg Cohn writes.

Eight months after Hamas attacked Israel from Gaza in the south, Hezbollah is ratcheting up its attacks from Lebanon in the north.

To what end? In theory, Hezbollah is pinning down Israel on the northern front, thus pressuring it to make peace with Hamas. The military logic is that more fighting out of Lebanon will lead to less fighting in Gaza.

How will it end? Much like it began, in bloodshed.

There is no Gaza ceasefire in the offing — despite the latest offer from Israel via the U.S. and the UN.

Which means that an even deadlier Israel-Lebanon war seems increasingly likely. One war begets another.

The world has been demanding a ceasefire ever since Hamas started the shooting war last Oct. 7, triggering Israel’s counterattack. All this time, most spectators and protesters have assumed that Israel need only say Yes — after which the overkill in Gaza could come to an end.

Now it turns out that getting Hamas to say Yes is proving harder, and taking longer, than many thought possible. If Hamas were really so concerned about what it calls a genocide taking place on its territory, wouldn’t it move urgently to a ceasefire hostage release — avoiding more of the dangerous Israeli rescue missions it complains of, while sparing the lives of the Gazans it rules over from underground tunnels?

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