As last year drew to a close, President Trump’s reelection prospects had never looked brighter: Impeachment was behind him, unemployment was at historic lows, the stock market seemed to hit a new high every day, and Americans who generally agree on little else felt pretty great about the state of the U.S. economy. Gallup found that 62% rated economic conditions “excellent” or “good,” the most in a decade. Nothing on the horizon indicated cause for worry.
Coronavirus changed that within a matter of weeks. Economic repercussions have traced the path of the virus with astonishing speed, first ravaging financial markets in China, then Europe, and finally the U.S. On Feb. 12 the S&P 500 hit a record high; 30 days later the index had plunged almost 30%, capped off by what was at the time the worst single-day decline since the 1987 “Black Monday” crash.
The timing couldn’t be worse for Trump’s political hopes. Academic research has consistently found that voters judge incumbent presidents based on the state of the economy in an election year—and that their impressions of economic performance solidify over the spring, which means now.
“In my model and most other forecasting models, the election year economy is critical,” says Alan Abramowitz, a political science professor at Emory University whose election model has been among the most accurate. “And the second quarter seems to be what really matters in terms of shaping the outlook of voters heading into the election.”
Denne historien er fra March 23, 2020-utgaven av Bloomberg Businessweek.
Start din 7-dagers gratis prøveperiode på Magzter GOLD for å få tilgang til tusenvis av utvalgte premiumhistorier og 9000+ magasiner og aviser.
Allerede abonnent ? Logg på
Denne historien er fra March 23, 2020-utgaven av Bloomberg Businessweek.
Start din 7-dagers gratis prøveperiode på Magzter GOLD for å få tilgang til tusenvis av utvalgte premiumhistorier og 9000+ magasiner og aviser.
Allerede abonnent? Logg på
Instagram's Founders Say It's Time for a New Social App
The rise of AI and the fall of Twitter could create opportunities for upstarts
Running in Circles
A subscription running shoe program aims to fight footwear waste
What I Learned Working at a Hawaiien Mega-Resort
Nine wild secrets from the staff at Turtle Bay, who have to manage everyone from haughty honeymooners to go-go-dancing golfers.
How Noma Will Blossom In Kyoto
The best restaurant in the world just began its second pop-up in Japan. Here's what's cooking
The Last-Mover Problem
A startup called Sennder is trying to bring an extremely tech-resistant industry into the age of apps
Tick Tock, TikTok
The US thinks the Chinese-owned social media app is a major national security risk. TikTok is running out of ways to avoid a ban
Cleaner Clothing Dye, Made From Bacteria
A UK company produces colors with less water than conventional methods and no toxic chemicals
Pumping Heat in Hamburg
The German port city plans to store hot water underground and bring it up to heat homes in the winter
Sustainability: Calamari's Climate Edge
Squid's ability to flourish in warmer waters makes it fitting for a diet for the changing environment
New Money, New Problems
In Naples, an influx of wealthy is displacing out-of-towners lower-income workers