THE THREE WITCHES in William Shakespeare’s Macbeth—representing evil, chaos, and darkness—seem the perfect metaphor for the current economic situation. The three witches that can derail India’s and the world’s economic recovery are hardening commodity prices, soaring inflation, and unrelenting geopolitical tension, especially emanating from the Ukraine conflict. Countries across the world are bearing the brunt. In March 2022, retail inflation in India was at a 17-month high of 6.95 per cent, while in the US it was at a 40-year high of 8.5 per cent. In India, the wholesale price index (WPI) was also at a 30-year high of 12.96 per cent in FY22, and 14.55 per cent in March.
But it’s not worrying everyone. Former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg points out that high inflation has been around under every regime: “India has had episodes of inflation for a very long time. In fact, episodes of not having inflation are smaller. So, if you go to the recent past, from 2008 to 2013-14, we had massive [retail] inflation ranging from 8.35 per cent to 11.06 per cent.” Inflation, which has made governments and policymakers jittery, impacts not only households but everyone involved in the economy.
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