The Gains Of War

Kiran's Kontrarian Korner

- Kiran Karnik

That war is terrible business will be unanimously agreed upon. So, why do we talk here about the gains of war? The reason is simple: for many, war is good business. As an example, look at the on-going Russia-Ukraine war. Worries about supply of oil and gas immediately drove up their prices by as much as 50 percent. As a result, companies exporting these critical commodities have been raking in money from the early days of fighting. Subsequently, pressure on European nations to curb imports from Russia have further driven up open-market prices. Countries now looking for cheaper energy supplies can get them from Russia at a discount - but, apparently, yet above the pre-war prices. Russia gains from this, even as Europe - unable to immediately find alternative sources - continues to be the major customer. This is, doubtless, the moment that US shale oil companies - languishing due to higher costs and falling demand were awaiting. With the US pushing this as an alternative to Russian supplies, Europe may have few options but to buy it, even at higher rates.

Meanwhile, in sympathetic jugalbandhi, coal prices have shot up. Exporting companies, from Australia, Indonesia, and else-where, are making a killing. So are Russian coal exporters. Coal-burning power plants - shunned for their production of carbon and impact on climate - are being re-opened, and global demand is increasing. Nuclear power, on the blacklist first after the disaster in 1986 in Chernobyl-ironically, in Ukraine - and more so after Fukushima (2011), is back in favour. It is seen as a long-term, greener alternative to fossil fuel. Companies manufacturing these plants - including exporters in the US, France, China, Russia, and South Korea - must be overjoyed at the strong revival in global demand.