Before January 1, 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Olympics?
I am in a virtual workshop that will test my abilities to forecast the future, and I have 10 seconds to answer. I’m scanning my brain. (Simone Biles, not relevant. Moscow, 1980, yes. Uyghurs?) But time’s up. I guess 20 percent. Then it’s on to the next questions: What is the probability the U.S. will regulate cryptocurrencies on the stock market by January 2023? Will China attempt to take Taiwan over the next five years? How big is the surface area of the Mediterranean Sea in square kilometers?
“I bet you didn’t wake up thinking you had to answer that question today,” says Warren Hatch, who is co-leading this workshop.
There are about 12 of us taking this training, including a guy from the Department of Defense. Over the next two days, we scratch our heads, trade bits of insight, try to shed our cognitive biases (more on that later), and see if we have the chops for predicting things professionally. I am definitely out, but I suspect a couple in this group qualify. Those who do will be a step closer to gaining an elite, though geeky, kind of status: It’s called a “superforecaster.” And if you are one, you can join the global network of über predictors, the best of the best, who work with the company that arranged this workshop in the first place. It is called Good Judgment. Hatch is its CEO.
Denne historien er fra December 2021-utgaven av Entrepreneur.
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Denne historien er fra December 2021-utgaven av Entrepreneur.
Start din 7-dagers gratis prøveperiode på Magzter GOLD for å få tilgang til tusenvis av utvalgte premiumhistorier og 9000+ magasiner og aviser.
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How Small Shops Take Big Risks - It's not easy for mom-and-pops to try something new, because they rarely have a safety net to fail.But there are ways to innovate cautiously-as one small business on our list, All My Heart tattoo studio, has found.
The Charlotte, North Carolina, studio is airy and suffused with natural light. In the reception area, there are modular chairs, midcentury couches, and a vase of fresh flowers on a Japanese-influenced cabinet. But the real surprise goes beyond aesthetics. All My Heart's owner, Graham Beech, isn't just playing with a new look; he's trying out a whole new business model. Historically, tattoo shops have wanted to control the clientele, and use the tattoo artist as kind of a cog in the wheel, Beech says. What's different about our business is that the client is the artist, and they have their own individual clients.
5 Ways to Multitask Your Fall - From a corporate office to working from the living room, Emmy Award winner Mario Armstrong has five new products designed to make putting in the hours more enjoyable.
From a corporate office to working from the living room, Emmy Award winner Mario Armstrong has five new products designed to make putting in the hours more enjoyable.
You Can Hire Like Netflix - The streaming platform built an incredible team with a strategy called
Looking for a job? ClassDojo has 15 positions open, but heads up: The bar is death zone high, and they're in no rush to hire. The children's education company has a team of 220 and a hiring rate of 0.09% of those who apply.How can a company grow while hiring that slowly? The answer is "talent density", a concept that's gaining steam lately.
Speedy Growth Killed My Startup - We seemed to be rocking it-lots of press, major partnerships. Then we learned the harsh consequences of overlooking our customers.
Three months after I launched my company, we were featured in The New York Times. Other national outlets followed. The attention led to partnerships with Shake Shack, Bombas, Urban Outfitters, and hundreds of other major brands.You might think this sounds good. I sure did when it happened. Hockey stick growth is a sign of success, right? But it wasn't. My company, This App Saves Lives, had fallen into one of the most surprising and ultimately fatal traps for entrepreneurs: We grew before truly understanding our product-market fit. That mistake would ultimately result in the demise of our business.
How to Hire for the Future - Small businesses are struggling to find quality labor. So flip the conversation: Show workers how your business will set them up for opportunity.
Small businesses have a hiring problem. According to the July monthly jobs report from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), 19% of small businesses rank the inability to find quality labor as the single most important issue facing their company, while 38% reported job openings they could not fill. Overall, 49% reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill.
Three Pivots to $100 Million - How do you find a working business model? Do it like Rowan-a brand that reinvented itself many times before finally piercing the ear-piercing market
If you have a tween girl, you've probably heard of Rowan. It's the cool brand for piercings, where licensed nurses insert hypoallergenic studs into thousands of ears every day. With more than 500 employees, it's on track to have 65 stores and an annual run rate of $100 million in revenue this year.But in 2017, Rowan was just a fledgling startup with a great idea and a bad business model. It survived because founder Louisa Schneider was willing to pivot, and pivot, and pivot again, until its mission, profit, and market all clicked into place.
Trust Equals Sales
For their business to work, Dianne and Gabrielle Melillo need more than customers. They need a community that has total confidence in them.
HOW TRUST SAVED KFC
The former CEO of Yum! Brands explains how he turned around a struggling KFC and the important lesson it offers for anyone in franchising.
THE CURSE OF GROWING TOO FAST
FAIRE is a platform for small businesses, but it grew big the wrong way-almost becoming a $12 billion wreck. Here's how it fixed the problem, and why you should think twice before skyrocketing.
HOW TO ASK FAMILY FOR MONEY
Your friends-and-family fundraising round doesn't have to be scary and awkward. Here's advice from one of the world's leading investors.
