Food inflation plays a central role in headline inflation, but is also an important metric to track in terms of access to sufficient and sufficiently nutritious food for households. The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy’s (BFAP) ‘Baseline Agricultural Outlook 2020 to 2029’ explores current and possible future trends in food inflation and their potential impact on household food security from an affordability perspective.
TRENDS IN FOOD INFLATION
For the past couple of years, BFAP has included a food inflation forecast in its baseline report that is in line with the statistical properties of the inflationary series in question (be it food inflation or one of its sub-categories). This has been done with relative confidence, as most inflationary series exhibit a degree of inertia that can be drawn on to forecast trends. This inertia is predominantly supported by demand-side trends that drive the longer-term trajectory of the series. Supply-side issues also play a role, but manifest more as shorter-term shocks away from longer-term demand-side trends.
As the country emerges from the strict COVID- 19 lockdown measures, however, it is unclear how these supply and demand dynamics will show up in metrics such as food inflation. In terms of demand, South African consumers have been under pressure from before the lockdown period, thus the restrictions intensified the economic pressures already evident from early 2019. The supply side, in turn, also experienced unprecedented shocks, such as a significant depreciation of the rand-US dollar exchange rate.
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Denne historien er fra September 18, 2020-utgaven av Farmer's Weekly.
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Syngenta Seedcare celebrates a decade of innovation
Syngenta's ambition is to enable their customers' investments to grow in healthy soil from treated seeds to young plants through innovation and collaboration, writes Magda du Toit.
Agri workers shine at Western Cape awards
Lindie-Alet van Staden, a garden and olive orchard manager at L’Ormarins Wine Estate in Franschhoek, was crowned as the Western Cape Prestige Agri-Worker of 2024 at a gala event recently held near Paarl.
Small and large farmers recognised at grain awards
The annual Grain SA/Syngenta awards ceremony bears testimony to the quality of farmers in the grain industry.
Growing partnerships: Fedgroup's flexible and innovative approach
Janine Ryan spoke to Warren Winchester, general manager of impact investing at Fedgroup, about why the company became involved in agriculture, and what it offers farmers and their immediate communities.
Why fish farms fail, and how to avoid becoming a statistic
The popularity of launching fish farms is not matched by their success. Leslie Ter Morshuizen, owner of Aquaculture Solutions, explores the factors that cause most of these businesses to go under.
Where history and modernity meet in a luxurious setting
Brian Berkman kept his eyes peeled for ghosts in the oldest continuously run hotel in South Africa, but all he found was a fabulous two-night stay.
THE HITCHING POST
I'm a stylish elderly lady with a radiant glow and a good sense of humour that keeps me young at heart.
Cutworms: check the weeds on your fields!
Zunel van Eeden explains why understanding the ecological interplay between cutworms and weeds is crucial for effective pest management. Producers should disrupt the life cycle of cutworms to minimise crop damage.
Does high-density grazing mimic grazing patterns of game?
In their paper on high-density grazing in Southern Africa, professors Angelinus Franke and Elmarie Kotzé from the Department of Soil, Crop and Climate Sciences at the University of the Free State say high-density grazing systems may not accurately reflect natural ecosystems. Roelof Bezuidenhout reports.
Global grain outlook: 2024/25 marketing season
In its latest summer crops report, the Crop Estimates Committee says South African farmers intend to plant 4,47 million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds in the 2024/25 season, up 1% from the previous season. As South Africa exports maize and soya bean, Annelie Coleman reports on the latest trends in the international grain and oilseed markets, amid fluctuations in weather conditions and ongoing armed conflicts.
