If nothing else, our strange year 2020 shows the peril of short-term forecasting. On January 1st, no one put a global pandemic atop their economic and investing concerns. But weeks later, the world had changed. Exogenous events have always had their say in history. In June 1914, the Archduke Ferdinand, presumed heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, was shot by an assassin. The killing set off a chain of events that led to World War I, resulting in Germany’s humiliating defeat. Two and a half decades later Germany sought revenge for its WWI humiliation in the bloodiest imaginable way.
Yet forecast we must. Failure to do so is to duck the future and our opportunity to shape it. As we look fearlessly toward 2030, let’s consider a two vector method to predict the next decade with some degree of confidence.
Here I defer to a pair of proven forecasters, self-made billionaires each. One is a deceased venture capitalist, the other a thriving investor at age 84. The venture capitalist was Don Valentine, who founded in 1972 Silicon Valley’s most successful firm, Sequoia Capital. Valentine said if you knew just one thing about the future, you could make a fortune. That one thing was the rate of technological progress. In the digital world of semiconductors, computers, software and the Internet, that one thing was Moore’s Law, the rate at which transistor density, and by extension computational power and memory, would improve year by year.
“Project Moore’s Law into the future, then imagine what new products, services and growth markets it will enable. You will make lots of money,” Valentine told me. He certainly did, investing in Apple, Oracle and Cisco. His Sequoia successors invested in Google, Facebook and Zoom.
Denne historien er fra October 2020-utgaven av Forbes Indonesia.
Start din 7-dagers gratis prøveperiode på Magzter GOLD for å få tilgang til tusenvis av utvalgte premiumhistorier og 9000+ magasiner og aviser.
Allerede abonnent ? Logg på
Denne historien er fra October 2020-utgaven av Forbes Indonesia.
Start din 7-dagers gratis prøveperiode på Magzter GOLD for å få tilgang til tusenvis av utvalgte premiumhistorier og 9000+ magasiner og aviser.
Allerede abonnent? Logg på
BACK ON TRACK
Collective wealth gets a 21% boost to a record $162 billion amid an economic uptick.
Championing Locals
The wave of social commerce is enabling inclusive digital economies beyond urban areas.
Boys in the Bubble
Startups are supposed to specialize, but OPENSEA’s founders thrived by building a wide-open market for creating and trading all manner of NFTs, whether art, music or gaming. Now that they’re centimillionaires and poised to become billionaires, they have other worries: competitors, fraudsters and the next crypto crash.
Enduring Relations
The implementation of IA-CEPA amid the pandemic signifies the Indonesia-Australia’s commitment to recover and counter future challenges together.
Sweet Success
Steven Erwin envisions Unifam to become a major global player in the confectionery and F&B industry.
Marathon Man
Across America, scores of municipal pension funds remain scandalously underfunded. But not the pension fund of Tampa’s police and firemen, thanks in large part to JAY BOWEN, whose no-frills approach to stock picking has protected and served them for more than 45 years.
Gold Rallies on Inflation Fears
During September the price of gold rallied to $1,868 per ounce following the release of figures on US inflation by the Bureau of Labor Statistics which indicated that, as of September, CPI inflation had rocketed to 6.2%, above the 5.8% which economists had been predicting.
Set Off to A New Start
Bank Aladin has two main ingredients for success: establish trust and offer better customer experiences.
The Daily Intake
YOUVIT plans to invest further into marketing and grow into one of the leading vitamin brands in Indonesia.
THE CROESUS OF CRYPTO
FTX COFOUNDER SAM BANKMAN-FRIED BUILT A $22.5 BILLION FORTUNE BEFORE HIS 30TH BIRTHDAY BY PROFITING OFF THE CRYPTOCURRENCY FRENZY—BUT HE’S NOT A TRUE BELIEVER. HE JUST WANTS HIS WEALTH TO SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO GIVE IT ALL AWAY.