How would you describe the current investment scenario even as the world continues to tackle the challenges presented by the pandemic?
The current investment regime is a globally synchronised and mostly V-shaped recovery, helped by heavy monetary and fiscal stimuli. The world economy entered a synchronised shock-like recession in the first half of 2020 and is now recovering at different speeds. The main divergence in the speed of the recovery is the amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus available. The US, China and Japan have experienced a 10 per cent downswing in economic output, with the figures rising to 15 per cent in continental Europe and 20 per cent in the UK. Emerging markets have been hit hard but at varying degrees by the pandemic, with Latin America still in doldrums.
We expect most of the mature economies to compensate for about half of the shortfall during Q3, with a much slower pace thereafter. China is the exception, since the world’s second largest economy is back at pre-crisis levels as we speak in terms of economic output.
Has Covid-19 impacted the way investors view their portfolios?
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