A prehistoric human crouches on the African savannah. Something moves in the corner of her eye. A lion? She freezes and readies her spear. But the breeze blows, the grass shifts, and she sees the “lion” was only a trick of the light.
Humans see patterns and connections everywhere. This makes sense when you realize that for most of our history, a person who thought they saw a lion got startled, while a person who didn’t see a lion g+ot eaten. Better to err on the side of caution xand interpret every unusual movement as a lion, even if most of the time no lion is really there. So how can we find out if a pattern or connection is meaningful or not? To figure that out, people invented statistics. Like stone spears and modern computers, statistics are tools. They let us see the mathematical patterns in systems too enormous and complex to understand without help, like Earth-spanning weather systems or cities full of people. We can use those patterns to help predict the future.
What Are Bayesian Statistics?
“The success of statistics is obvious, especially in scientific research,” says Wayne Stewart, a statistics professor at the University of Oklahoma. He uses numbers and computer code to teach people how to detect complex patterns in data, even when the data are messy or complicated.
There are two statistical frameworks, classical and Bayesian. According to Stewart, classical statistics focuses on whatever experiment you’re doing at the moment, so it avoids biases from previous work. Bayesian statistics deliberately uses information from previous work so scientists can get as much information as possible. Both can be useful.
Denne historien er fra July/August 2021-utgaven av Muse Science Magazine for Kids.
Start din 7-dagers gratis prøveperiode på Magzter GOLD for å få tilgang til tusenvis av utvalgte premiumhistorier og 9000+ magasiner og aviser.
Allerede abonnent ? Logg på
Denne historien er fra July/August 2021-utgaven av Muse Science Magazine for Kids.
Start din 7-dagers gratis prøveperiode på Magzter GOLD for å få tilgang til tusenvis av utvalgte premiumhistorier og 9000+ magasiner og aviser.
Allerede abonnent? Logg på
A Mars Rock Found With Leopard Spots Could Be a Sign of Ancient Life
IN JULY, NASA'S PERSEVERANCE ROVER CAME ACROSS A SPOTTED ROCK IN WHAT WAS ONCE A RIVERBED IN THE JEZERO CRATER ON MARS.
Para Athlete Uses Exoskeleton Suit to Carry the Olympic Torch
In July, a 36-year-old French tennis para athlete, Kevin Piette, got a chance to participate in this summer’s Olympic torch relay without using a wheelchair.
Ancient Egyptians May Have Used a Water System to Lift Stones to Build Pyramid
HOW ANCIENT EGYPTIANS BUILT THE MASSIVE PYRAMIDS IN EGYPT MORE THAN 4,000 YEARS AGO HAS LONG BEEN A TOPIC OF WONDER AND DEBATE.
Seals Can Make Big Dives Thanks to Their Big Hearts
SEALS AND SEA LIONS, WHICH ARE SEMI-AQUATIC MAMMALS, CAN HOLD THEIR BREATHS UNDERWATER FOR ESPECIALLY LONG PERIODS OF TIME.
THE BIG-CITY LIFE OF STEVEN J.BIKE SHOP RABBIT IN BROOKLYN, NEW YORK
Bicycle Roots is a full-service bike shop. It's in the heart of Brooklyn, New York. Joe Lawler is the co-owner and service manager. Perhaps more important, he's \"dad\" to the shop's most popular employee. That's Steven J. Lawler.
Wild Ones
WHAT FACTORS DRIVE PEOPLE TO BUY MONKEYS, TIGERS, AND OTHER WILD ANIMALS?
HOW TO CONQUER THE WORLD
A brief history
What would happen if meteors hit Earth?
You may have seen Ameteors fly into Earth's atmosphere, in the form of shooting stars.
WORKING WORMS
DON'T JUST THROW THOSE TABLE SCRAPS AWAY! LET A BOX OF WORMS TURN THEM INTO SOMETHING USEFUL.
Dog Rescue Saves Lives
THE ARGUMENT FOR ADOPTING A NO-KILL GOAL