Behind The Curtain With Bayesian Statistics
Muse Science Magazine for Kids|July/August 2021
What are statistics? Why do we need them?
By Dani Glidewell
Behind The Curtain With Bayesian Statistics

A prehistoric human crouches on the African savannah. Something moves in the corner of her eye. A lion? She freezes and readies her spear. But the breeze blows, the grass shifts, and she sees the “lion” was only a trick of the light.

Humans see patterns and connections everywhere. This makes sense when you realize that for most of our history, a person who thought they saw a lion got startled, while a person who didn’t see a lion g+ot eaten. Better to err on the side of caution xand interpret every unusual movement as a lion, even if most of the time no lion is really there. So how can we find out if a pattern or connection is meaningful or not? To figure that out, people invented statistics. Like stone spears and modern computers, statistics are tools. They let us see the mathematical patterns in systems too enormous and complex to understand without help, like Earth-spanning weather systems or cities full of people. We can use those patterns to help predict the future.

What Are Bayesian Statistics?

“The success of statistics is obvious, especially in scientific research,” says Wayne Stewart, a statistics professor at the University of Oklahoma. He uses numbers and computer code to teach people how to detect complex patterns in data, even when the data are messy or complicated.

There are two statistical frameworks, classical and Bayesian. According to Stewart, classical statistics focuses on whatever experiment you’re doing at the moment, so it avoids biases from previous work. Bayesian statistics deliberately uses information from previous work so scientists can get as much information as possible. Both can be useful.

Denne historien er fra July/August 2021-utgaven av Muse Science Magazine for Kids.

Start din 7-dagers gratis prøveperiode på Magzter GOLD for å få tilgang til tusenvis av utvalgte premiumhistorier og 9000+ magasiner og aviser.

Denne historien er fra July/August 2021-utgaven av Muse Science Magazine for Kids.

Start din 7-dagers gratis prøveperiode på Magzter GOLD for å få tilgang til tusenvis av utvalgte premiumhistorier og 9000+ magasiner og aviser.

FLERE HISTORIER FRA MUSE SCIENCE MAGAZINE FOR KIDSSe alt
A Mars Rock Found With Leopard Spots Could Be a Sign of Ancient Life
Muse Science Magazine for Kids

A Mars Rock Found With Leopard Spots Could Be a Sign of Ancient Life

IN JULY, NASA'S PERSEVERANCE ROVER CAME ACROSS A SPOTTED ROCK IN WHAT WAS ONCE A RIVERBED IN THE JEZERO CRATER ON MARS.

time-read
1 min  |
Muse November-December 2024: Pets on the Mind
Para Athlete Uses Exoskeleton Suit to Carry the Olympic Torch
Muse Science Magazine for Kids

Para Athlete Uses Exoskeleton Suit to Carry the Olympic Torch

In July, a 36-year-old French tennis para athlete, Kevin Piette, got a chance to participate in this summer’s Olympic torch relay without using a wheelchair.

time-read
1 min  |
Muse November-December 2024: Pets on the Mind
Ancient Egyptians May Have Used a Water System to Lift Stones to Build Pyramid
Muse Science Magazine for Kids

Ancient Egyptians May Have Used a Water System to Lift Stones to Build Pyramid

HOW ANCIENT EGYPTIANS BUILT THE MASSIVE PYRAMIDS IN EGYPT MORE THAN 4,000 YEARS AGO HAS LONG BEEN A TOPIC OF WONDER AND DEBATE.

time-read
1 min  |
Muse November-December 2024: Pets on the Mind
Seals Can Make Big Dives Thanks to Their Big Hearts
Muse Science Magazine for Kids

Seals Can Make Big Dives Thanks to Their Big Hearts

SEALS AND SEA LIONS, WHICH ARE SEMI-AQUATIC MAMMALS, CAN HOLD THEIR BREATHS UNDERWATER FOR ESPECIALLY LONG PERIODS OF TIME.

time-read
1 min  |
Muse November-December 2024: Pets on the Mind
THE BIG-CITY LIFE OF STEVEN J.BIKE SHOP RABBIT IN BROOKLYN, NEW YORK
Muse Science Magazine for Kids

THE BIG-CITY LIFE OF STEVEN J.BIKE SHOP RABBIT IN BROOKLYN, NEW YORK

Bicycle Roots is a full-service bike shop. It's in the heart of Brooklyn, New York. Joe Lawler is the co-owner and service manager. Perhaps more important, he's \"dad\" to the shop's most popular employee. That's Steven J. Lawler.

time-read
1 min  |
Muse November-December 2024: Pets on the Mind
Wild Ones
Muse Science Magazine for Kids

Wild Ones

WHAT FACTORS DRIVE PEOPLE TO BUY MONKEYS, TIGERS, AND OTHER WILD ANIMALS?

time-read
3 mins  |
Muse November-December 2024: Pets on the Mind
HOW TO CONQUER THE WORLD
Muse Science Magazine for Kids

HOW TO CONQUER THE WORLD

A brief history

time-read
4 mins  |
Muse November-December 2024: Pets on the Mind
What would happen if meteors hit Earth?
Muse Science Magazine for Kids

What would happen if meteors hit Earth?

You may have seen Ameteors fly into Earth's atmosphere, in the form of shooting stars.

time-read
2 mins  |
Muse November-December 2024: Pets on the Mind
WORKING WORMS
Muse Science Magazine for Kids

WORKING WORMS

DON'T JUST THROW THOSE TABLE SCRAPS AWAY! LET A BOX OF WORMS TURN THEM INTO SOMETHING USEFUL.

time-read
5 mins  |
Muse November-December 2024: Pets on the Mind
Dog Rescue Saves Lives
Muse Science Magazine for Kids

Dog Rescue Saves Lives

THE ARGUMENT FOR ADOPTING A NO-KILL GOAL

time-read
4 mins  |
Muse November-December 2024: Pets on the Mind