Day Zero Looms Large

Winter rain is falling in the Cape but experts warn it’s not nearly enough to stave off a water crisis next year

- Richard Van Rensburg

BLURRY snaps of rain spattered windscreens, pictures of grey skies and open umbrellas – these days when it’s raining in Cape Town the whole world knows about it because it instantly triggers a deluge of weather-related posts on Twitter and Facebook.

With the city narrowly avoiding Day Zero – the day the taps were due to run dry – it makes sense that residents want to share their sense of relief. So does this mean they can celebrate by taking a hot bath instead of a bucket shower?

Not so fast – the rain hasn’t washed the crisis away, it’s merely postponed it, say city officials and weather and water experts. With serious concerns around rainfall prospects and dams remaining at crisis levels there’s still a threat that Cape Town could become the world’s first major city to have its taps run dry. Here’s why everyone should be worried.

JUST A DROP IN THE OCEAN

After three years of below-average rainfall the Cape Town metropole – where most people in the Western Cape live – has pinned its hopes on the winter rain to help it play catch-up. But based on rainfall figures so far, it seems hopes for an above-average year were in vain.

Hydro-climatologist Dr Piotr Wolski at the University of Cape Town’s Climate Systems Analysis Group (CSAG) spells it out.

“In March we could’ve hoped for a wet year. Now we know it’s unlikely,” he says.

Figures going all the way back to 1930 show that the amount of rainfall by the end of April gives an indication of what kind of rainy season can be expected. If that rainfall is above average, there’s a good chance the rest of the season will also be above average.

But sadly it seems we’re in for another below-average year. The SA Weather Service says the long-term average for its Kirstenbosch station in April is 88,3mm. This year it was at 75,4mm.