The Virus, Vaccines And The Dearth Of Growth

The rollout of Covid-19 vaccines in SA holds the key for accelerated economic expansion. Will the government get it right?

- Mariam Isa

The World Bank has forecast that the global economy will grow by this year after a contraction 4% of 4.3% in 2020.

Prof Salim Abdool Karim

Epidemiologist who co-chairs SA’s Ministerial Advisory Committee on Covid-19

Optimism that the global economy would quickly rebound in 2021 as mass vaccination programmes quash Covid-19, has begun to fade in the face of resurgences of the virus around the world and concern that the vaccines intended to protect against illness will be less effective against rapidly spreading mutations of the virus.

Economists have begun to warn of significant downside risk to projections made just weeks ago, as countries hit by more severe second waves of infections reimpose restrictions on activity and evidence emerges that the coronavirus will remain a global threat for years to come.

Prof Alex van den Heever

Chair of social security systems administration and management studies at the University of the Witwatersrand

“The biggest risks to our more upbeat forecasts for this year relate to the evolution of the pandemic and our efforts to fight it,” said Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, a research consultancy based in London.

“The history of the pandemic so far has been one of hope trumping experience, with governments anticipating that lockdowns will be short-lived, but then retreating as the virus spreads in ways which we failed to envisage.”

Vaccines