Tomorrow

Waiting for Omicron The new COVID-19 variant is here. Are we prepared for it?

- David Wallace-Wells

THE NEWS DOESN’T seem great. Throughout the pandemic, the World Health Organization has declared four “variants of concern”; Omicron is the fifth. The variant was first identified in November, and the picture remains murky on matters of transmissibility, virulence, and immune evasion—all the important questions. While there are some encouraging signs that the new variant may be less immune evasive than had been feared—that the vaccines may hold up pretty well against it, and that observed breakthrough infections remain, at least among the young, mostly mild—there is some analysis suggesting escape potential could be “substantial,” and there is enough alarming news on each point to have rattled many epidemiologists and prompted new public-health interventions, including the possibility of tighter travel restrictions and insurance reimbursement for anyone buying at-home antigen tests.

It is helpful to remember that neither of the two previous variants exhibiting immune-evading features ultimately upended the course of the global pandemic. That was left to Delta, which dominated simply through its transmission advantage. Omicron may well demonstrate such an advantage over Delta, which could mean a quite bad course ahead, especially for the unvaccinated, for whom the new variant may be more severe.