Mood Swings

As Rajasthan, MadhyaPradesh and Chhattisgarh hold elections in December, an India today-axis pre-poll survey reads the straws in the political wind of the three states.

- Ajit Kumar Jha

Barely a fortnight ago, the political trends emerging from the three heartland states—Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh—scheduled for assembly elections in December reflected fierce anti­incumbency. Two pre­poll surveys, conducted in May and August by CSDS (the Centre for Study of Developing Societies) and C­Voter respectively, had predicted a clean sweep for the Congress party in all three states.

But as elections get closer and the campaign hots up, the tide seems to be turning. The simple one­way anti­incum­bency against the BJP noticed in early surveys has begun to appear messier. With the exception of Rajas than, which seems bent on bringing down the Vasundhara Raje­led BJP government, the India today­Axis Political Stock Ex­ change (PSE) pre­poll survey in September recorded a slight advantage for the Raman Singh­led BJP government in Chhattisgarh and a tight race in MP with higher popularity ratings for the Shivraj Singh Chouhan led­BJP government. Since the poll was conducted before the Mayawati (BSP)­Ajit Jogi (JCC) alliance announced on September 20, the Chhat­tisgarh picture in what will now be a three­cornered contest remains difficult to predict.

The Congress’s optimism in the state stemmed from the assumption that the BSP would tie up with it after the alliance hammered out in Bengaluru following the Karnataka polls. Remember the bonhomie between BSP president Mayawati and former Congress president Sonia Gandhi right after the political drama in the Garden City?