How India Worked Out Epidemic Model

A study used mathematical modelling to predict Coronavirus spread in Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru and Kolkata

- Ankit Kumar

At least two weeks before Coronavirus was declared a pandemic, Indian and international researchers had already worked out hypothetical epidemic dynamics for a potential outbreak in four Indian cities, suggesting that the disease's ability to transmit could be markedly restricted if half of symptomatic inbound passengers were quarantined at an earlier stage.

The study, published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research, relied on mathematical modelling to predict how COVID-19 could spread in Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru and Kolkata.

Shared by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) on Monday, the paper had forecast varying trends in Indian cities, considering contrasting scenarios.

OPTIMISTIC SCENARIOS

The study’s optimistic scenarios evaluated the entire intervention and no-intervention spectrum in India.

1) With Intervention

The paper, submitted by eight researchers from the ICMR and London’s Imperial College/St Mary’s Hospital on February 27, estimated that the overall Coronavirus incidents could reduce to 62 per cent in a city like Delhi if 50 per cent of symptomatic cases were quarantined at the start of stage one in India.